Audrey Kantz Dossou, Codjia Gandji, Kwame Oppong Hackman, Diakalia Son, Valentin Ouedraogo, Charles Lamoussa Sanou, Bêbê Momo, David Anaafo, Obed Appiah, Belko Abdoul‑Aziz, Diallo, Kehinde Olufunso Ogunjobi, Abdoul‑Karim Damoue, Gaston Dabire
Accepted: 19 May 2025
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025
Abstract
The yields of important crops, including maize, onion, and tomato in Burkina Faso, are affected by climate- and environmental-induced pests and diseases (P&Ds). The present study aimed to develop a simple, pilot early warning system (EWS) for the management of fall armyworm (FAW), defoliating caterpillars, and bacterial wilt in maize, onion, and tomato farms, respectively. To achieve this objective, the main climate and environmental variables conditioning maize FAW, onion-defoliating caterpillar, and tomato bacterial wilt were determined through a principal component analysis (PCA) using observed field data and values of these variables extracted at different locations and dates. A Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) approach was used to calculate the Occurrence Possibility Index (OPI) for the P&Ds. The results indicate that of a total of 101 climate and environmental variables considered, 25 were consistently influential on the 3 crops. Moreover, 51 are influential for maize-FAW, 58 for onion-defoliating caterpillars, and 61 for tomato bacterial wilt. Spatial analysis shows that the northern part of the country is less favorable for pest and disease occurrence than the southern part. The OPI varies from season to season and year to year. However, the mean OPI for all P&Ds is close to 0.8–0.9, indicating a high risk of outbreaks. The developed EWS, available at https:// ppedmas.org/ews.php, provides an opportunity for targeted intervention when conditions are favorable or unfavorable for the occurrence of maize-FAW, onion-defoliating caterpillar, and tomato-bacterial wilt.