Nikiema, Michel, Ibrahim, Boubacar, and Jorg Helmschrot
International Journal of Current Engineering and Technology



Burkina  Faso  is  facing  tremendous  challenges  for  its  water  and  agricultural  sector  considering  temperature  and floods  which  increased  during the  previous  decades  and  given  IPCC  climate  projections  for  West  Africa.  Addressing the  lack  of  knowledge  on  climate  trends  at  local  scale,  this  paper  assesses  trends  in  rainfall  as  well  as  means Temperature  (Tmean)  from  1971  to  2050  in  the  Massili  basin.  Hence,  a  50  years  record  (1961-2011)  from  Gonse station  as  well  as  data  from four  Regional  Climate  Models  (MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR,  CCCma-CanESM2,  AFR  44  and  AFR MPI) was analyzed. The model data were extracted from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) data  and included historical runs (1971-2005) and two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP4.5  and  RCP8.5)  for  the  period  2006-2050,  all  at  50*50  km²  spatial resolution.  The  analysis  of  the  simulation data  and  their  comparison  with  the  observed  record  indicate  that  only  AFR  44  reproduce  well  the  climate  trend sufficiently. However, a bias correction was done for improvement.  AFR 44 data predict an increase of Tmean by 1.8°C (RCP4.5) and 3.0 °C (RCP8.5). With an increase of 7.5 mm (RCP8.5) and an increase of 14.8 mm (RCP4.5) until 2050, both rainfall scenarios from AFR 44 provide increasing estimates.

Kabore/Bontogho P.E, Nikiema M, Ibrahim B, Helmschrot J 2015. Merging historical data records with MPI-ESM-LR, CanESM2, AFR MPI and AFR 44 scenarios to assess long-term climate trends for the Massili Basin in central Burkina Faso. International Journal of Current Engineering and Technology,  5, (3): 1846-1852.