Climate Variability and Rice Production in Mali: A Case Study of ‘Office Riz Ségou'

Abstract
Agriculture is a major aspect of the food systems, which is affected by climate variability. This study assessed the effect of climate variability on rice production in “Office Riz Ségou” (ORS), Mali from 1980 to 2014. The methods used include linear and multiple regression analysis of times series data on hydro-climatic parameters (temperature, rainfall, humidity and river flow) and descriptive statistics which was used to analyse farmers’ perception and adaptation measures. The results from analysis of hydro-climatic factors show an increasing trend at 1% significant level with the exception of rainfall. Correlation between rice production and hydro-climatic parameters shows that rice production is not directly dependent on these parameters. Also, there is a weak relationship between hydro-climatic parameters and rice production. However, the results of multiple regression analysis show that the effect of temperature on rice production is significant at 5% while, other parameters are not significant. Most of the households (86%) considered drought as the main cause of decrease in rice productivity in ORS while, 55.3% considered deforestation as the main cause of climate change. The majority of the households (98%) indicated that they do not use any coping/adaptation strategies to drought but creation of drainage system and the use of improved seeds were considered as the main adaptation strategies to flood in the study area.

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