Abstract
The Kyoto Protocol of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was developed as
an attempt to confront and begin to reverse the rising CO2
concentrations. But in order to set emission reduction targets in AFOLU
(Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses) sector, land use scenarios
must be developed. The present study addressed this issue in exploring
the possible future temporal and spatial impacts on CO2 and N2O
emissions from vegetation degradation in the Dassari Basin in the
North-West of Benin.
To achieve this objective, the current
vegetation carbon and nitrogen stocks were estimated using the highest
Tier level recommended by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) and scenarios were developed based on the current trend of land
use and socio-economic status of the site. The land use cover changes
showed a deforestation rate of 1.48 %. The estimated mean carbon stock
values and attached standard errors varied from 1.52 ± 0.14 (for the
cropland) to 97.83 ± 27.55 (for the plantations) Mg C ha-1. The
estimated nitrogen stock varied from 0.0077± 0.0067 (for the cropland)
to 0.321±0.088 (for the plantations) Mg ha-1 of N. A total of 175,347.75
± 21,042.48 (CI) and 875.53 ± 101.45 (CI) Mg was found for carbon and
nitrogen stocks respectively in 2013 at 95 % (CI).
The business
as usual scenario or the baseline (LUS1) will contribute to the
emissions of 26.70 Gg CO2 eq. and to a net removal of 21.70 Gg of CO2
per year over the period 2013-2025. The impact of the policy based food
security scenario (LUS2) will contribute to decrease the total emission
by up to 29.25 % and will increase the net removal by up to 42.94 %
whereas policy based adaptation and mitigation strategy to climate
change scenario (LUS3) and food security based mitigation strategy to
climate change scenario (LUS4) will respectively contribute to reduce
the total emission by up to 13.14 % and 36.47 %.
Despite these
findings the basin will still be a sink by 2025, but it is time to act
and react to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable communities and
contribute to the removal of CO2 through local project development or
project based carbon fund.
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