Abstract
This research adapted the Land-Use
Dynamic Simulator (LUDAS) framework to develop a multi-agent simulation
model (Vea-LUDAS) that captured the impact of agricultural land-use
change adaptation options in Vea catchment, Ghana. Sub-models on the
maize credit acceptance and soil loss were developed as adaptations to
the LUDAS framework.
The Vea-LUDAS model simulated the impact of
maize credit scenario – MCS (an agricultural land-use change adaptation
strategy) on: (i) Agricultural land-use, (ii) Farm household livelihood
and (iii) Soil loss potential, and the impact of MCS was compared with
the baseline scenario (BS) i.e. business-as-usual for a 20 year
simulation period (2012 – 2032). This research also determined the
association between heterogeneous farm households and their climate
change perception. Further, the underlying factors for agricultural
land-use change (ALUC) options in the study area were identified. Mixed
method was used for data collection and this included a household
survey, farmer and key informant interviews, field measurements, focus
group discussion, scenario exploration exercise and role playing games..
The
perception of heterogeneous household shows similarities and
differences. The endowments of households have influence on their
perception about climate change. Identified factors influencing ALUC
options in the study
area includes water (rainfall) availability,
tradition and land suitability. From the simulation result, the number
of maize adopters increased from about 20 % to about 50 % and the area
put under maize cultivation increased by iv about 266 %. MCS influenced
the conversion of some agricultural lands into maize cropland. Average
annual aggregated crop yield was 6.3 % higher under MCS compared to BS.
Soil loss under BS and MCS showed no statistical difference, but the
simulation result shows that cultivation on cropland with high erosion
risk has implication for soil loss.
In conclusion, this study
shows that MCS can improve farm household livelihood in the face of
changing climate. However, an encompassing policy strategy will boost
crop production and household resilience towards the impact of climate
change and variability. Some farmer adaptation strategies should include
improved fertiliser subsidy scheme, better access to irrigated farming,
accessibility to improved land preparation equipment and improved seed
varieties.
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