Abstract
Solar photovoltaic electricity is a
clean and renewable energy used to increase access to energy
particularly powering remote communities as well as mitigate climate
change. Solar PV technology has gained recognition worldwide as an
alternative to fossil fuel and nuclear electricity generation. Large
scale solar power plants require huge investment therefore having
knowledge about climate change impacts on PV modules help investors,
designers and policy makers to be able to make proper financial
planning, technology selection, energy output projections and mitigation
measures in place.
In this research thesis, the main aim is to
assess the impact of climate change on the energy output of photovoltaic
modules, found in The Gambia, in the near and far future.
In
this research thesis, we investigate how projected changes in
temperature and solar radiation over the 21st century will impact on
solar photovoltaic energy output. The results obtained for the
characterization of the performance of the PV modules show that there is
direct proportionality between output power and solar radiation and a
negative relation between output power and temperature. This means that
increase in solar radiation give higher current and power output
while increase in temperature reduces the output voltage and hence the power of PV modules.
Projected
climate data was obtained from the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison
Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. RCP8.5 describes a future world of rapid
economic growth with no mitigation and adaptation strategies considered
while RCP4.5 describes a future world of rapid economic growth until
2040 and a balanced use of renewable and fossil fuel power generation
with mitigation measures in place. The projections obtained under the
RCP8.5 scenario show a continuous increasing trend of temperature and a
decline in solar radiation to the end of the 4 21st century while RCP4.5
depicts an increase trend for temperature and decline in solar
radiation until mid-21st century then it stabilizes thereafter. The
increase in temperature and decrease in solar radiation consequently
have a negative effect on the efficiency and power output of the PV
modules