Abstract
One of the operationalised tools of
human-environment system (HES) modelling approach is Multi-Agent System
(MAS) which has been used in a number of areas to study thedynamics and
management of human and natural systems especially when facing
unexpected disturbances.
Therefore, increasing studies are
interested in using Multi-Agent analyses for the understanding of
agricultural adaptation to environmental changes. However, when it comes
to the use of MAS for the operationalisation of adaptation decision
making in agricultural land use based on farmers’ perception of climate
variability, only very few studies empirically operationalise the
concept in their simulations.
Also, another challenge is how to
isolate planned adaptation within a large traditional number of
autonomous adaptation practices. The current research therefore focused
on the implementation of a MAS approach for investigating the
traditional adaptive strategies in a small scale area in the Upper East
Region of Ghana by considering farmers’ perception of climate change and
variability.
In order to achieve the purpose of this, Land Use
Dynamic Simulator (LUDAS) approach was adapted and modified by
integrating the two stepdecision making sub-models. This modified
version of LUDAS called SKY-LUDAS (referring to the communities where it
was implemented: Sirigu-Sumbrungu-Kandiga-Yuwa) was constructed to
capture the empirical heterogeneity of farm household agents and
landscape agents (biophysical environment), and also to explicitly
simulate interactions between these two agent types.
From the
results of the multivariate statistical methods, three farm household
agent groups were identified. Also the factors explaining the decision
of these three household agent groups on the choice of the six
identified land-use types were analysed. Two submodels were developed
and calibrated for implementing the two-step decision making submodels:
Perception-of-Climate-Change and Adaptation Choice strategies.
Simulation results of SKY-LUDAS suggested that the land-use behaviour in
the study area reflects a tendency of subsistence farming. In terms of
farm-households’ livelihood strategy, especially the structure of the
gross income, there was a growing contribution of rice and groundnut.
Also the pattern of the gross income under the scenario of perception on
climate change (PCC) showed explicitly the contribution of the
adaptation options in the households’ livelihood strategy.
Accordingly,
SKY-LUDAS has revealed a gradual shift among land-use types from
traditional cereals farming to the cultivation of groundnuts, rice,
maize and soybean.
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